When Wall Street holds its breath: How chips, banks and oil set today’s tone
The day began with screens glowing red from the previous sell-off, but by the time U.S. traders logged on, the mood had shifted. Nasdaq futures were quietly grinding higher, S&P 500 futures were in the green, and the Dow was inching up, hinting at a cautious rebound rather than a euphoric rally. After two choppy sessions, it felt less like the start of a new bull leg and more like the market taking a deep breath. The story driving that pause and the renewed optimism started thousands of miles away in Taiwan, and wound its way through New York bank boardrooms and the oil pits.
Chips light the way higher
Overnight, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company delivered the kind of quarter that reassures everyone betting on artificial intelligence not just as a buzzword, but as a multi-year spending cycle. The world’s leading maker of advanced AI chips lifted its growth outlook and flagged heavier capital spending, signalling that the build-out of data centres and AI infrastructure is far from over. One strategist summed up the mood neatly: “TSMC has reminded investors that AI is an investment programme, not a one-quarter fad,” said a portfolio manager quoted by Reuters, pointing to the surge in U.S. chip equipment names in pre-market trade.
By early U.S. hours, Nasdaq 100 futures were up around three quarters of a percent, clearly outpacing the S&P 500 and the Dow as traders piled back into semiconductors and AI-linked names. Goldman Sachs Research has been arguing that AI-linked capital expenditure could top 500 billion dollars in the coming years, and days like today give that thesis fresh oxygen. “The next beneficiaries of the AI trade will be the companies that use the technology, not just those that build it,” wrote Goldman analyst Ryan Hammond, hinting at a rotation that could stretch well beyond the chipmakers. For now, though, it was the usual suspects chip designers, equipment makers and data-centre plays that led futures higher.
Banks, oil and the search for balance
While tech grabbed the headlines, the second strand of today’s story sat on Wall Street itself, where big banks were lining up to report earnings. With analysts expecting S&P 500 profits to grow nearly 9% year on year this quarter, the question is less “are earnings fine?” and more “are they good enough to justify record-level indices?” As one New York equity strategist put it, “We’re in a market that wants to believe the soft landing story, but needs banks to confirm it in their loan books and credit costs.” That makes every line of guidance from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and their peers part of today’s narrative, not just a quarterly formality.
In the background, oil prices quietly handed equity investors a small gift. Brent and WTI fell more than 2% after President Donald Trump said killings linked to Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing, lowering perceived odds of U.S. military action and a supply shock. “Selling pressure prevailed on expectations that the U.S. would not take military action against Iran,” explained Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities, as crude gave back much of its recent geopolitical premium. Cheaper oil helps keep inflation pressures in check, and that, in turn, supports the idea that the Federal Reserve can stay patient rather than slamming on the brakes again.
Put together, it leaves investors with a familiar but still fragile picture: an AI-fuelled tech rebound, an earnings season that will either validate or puncture high valuations, and geopolitics that can move markets in a single headline. For anyone watching from the sidelines whether in Mumbai, London or New York — today’s session is a reminder that modern markets rarely move for just one reason. They move when stories like chips, banks and oil all line up, even for a moment, in the same direction.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs
Table of Contents
The day began with screens glowing red from the previous sell-off, but by the time U.S. traders logged on, the mood had shifted. Nasdaq futures were quietly grinding higher, S&P 500 futures were in the green, and the Dow was inching up, hinting at a cautious rebound rather than a euphoric rally. After two choppy sessions, it felt less like the start of a new bull leg and more like the market taking a deep breath. The story driving that pause and the renewed optimism started thousands of miles away in Taiwan, and wound its way through New York bank boardrooms and the oil pits.
Chips light the way higher
Overnight, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company delivered the kind of quarter that reassures everyone betting on artificial intelligence not just as a buzzword, but as a multi-year spending cycle. The world’s leading maker of advanced AI chips lifted its growth outlook and flagged heavier capital spending, signalling that the build-out of data centres and AI infrastructure is far from over. One strategist summed up the mood neatly: “TSMC has reminded investors that AI is an investment programme, not a one-quarter fad,” said a portfolio manager quoted by Reuters, pointing to the surge in U.S. chip equipment names in pre-market trade.
By early U.S. hours, Nasdaq 100 futures were up around three quarters of a percent, clearly outpacing the S&P 500 and the Dow as traders piled back into semiconductors and AI-linked names. Goldman Sachs Research has been arguing that AI-linked capital expenditure could top 500 billion dollars in the coming years, and days like today give that thesis fresh oxygen. “The next beneficiaries of the AI trade will be the companies that use the technology, not just those that build it,” wrote Goldman analyst Ryan Hammond, hinting at a rotation that could stretch well beyond the chipmakers. For now, though, it was the usual suspects chip designers, equipment makers and data-centre plays that led futures higher.
Banks, oil and the search for balance
While tech grabbed the headlines, the second strand of today’s story sat on Wall Street itself, where big banks were lining up to report earnings. With analysts expecting S&P 500 profits to grow nearly 9% year on year this quarter, the question is less “are earnings fine?” and more “are they good enough to justify record-level indices?” As one New York equity strategist put it, “We’re in a market that wants to believe the soft landing story, but needs banks to confirm it in their loan books and credit costs.” That makes every line of guidance from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and their peers part of today’s narrative, not just a quarterly formality.
In the background, oil prices quietly handed equity investors a small gift. Brent and WTI fell more than 2% after President Donald Trump said killings linked to Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing, lowering perceived odds of U.S. military action and a supply shock. “Selling pressure prevailed on expectations that the U.S. would not take military action against Iran,” explained Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities, as crude gave back much of its recent geopolitical premium. Cheaper oil helps keep inflation pressures in check, and that, in turn, supports the idea that the Federal Reserve can stay patient rather than slamming on the brakes again.
Put together, it leaves investors with a familiar but still fragile picture: an AI-fuelled tech rebound, an earnings season that will either validate or puncture high valuations, and geopolitics that can move markets in a single headline. For anyone watching from the sidelines whether in Mumbai, London or New York — today’s session is a reminder that modern markets rarely move for just one reason. They move when stories like chips, banks and oil all line up, even for a moment, in the same direction.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs