Wall Street’s hot streak hits a cautious pause
The party did not end with a crash, but with a quiet shuffle to the exits. After a roaring start to 2026, US stock futures slipped on Thursday morning, hinting that Wall Street’s winning run may finally be catching its breath. The Dow and S&P 500, both near record highs after a multi‑year rally powered by artificial intelligence and easy money, are now edging lower as traders turn their eyes to a familiar antagonist: economic data. Weekly jobless claims and the next non‑farm payrolls report sit on the horizon like a plot twist investors know is coming, even if they do not yet know the ending.
A rally meets reality
The mood on trading desks feels less like panic and more like a reality check. S&P 500 futures are slightly in the red, extending Wednesday’s modest pullback, while Dow futures signal another soft open after the index dropped more than 400 points the previous session. In points, that sounds dramatic; in percentage terms, it is the kind of move long‑time investors barely flinch at.
Strategists have been warning that this year would test nerves. Carnegie’s January briefing captured the tone: headlines scream “plunge”, but many of these moves are “less than 1%” and part of normal market noise. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report put it more bluntly when talking about the 2026 outlook: the bull market can continue, but only “if the four pillars” of AI, steady growth, monetary easing and tariff stability hold up. Any wobble in one of those pillars, he argued, turns routine dips into something more sinister.
That tension is visible today. The Federal Reserve has already cut rates and now walks a narrow path between supporting growth and keeping its inflation credibility intact. Markets, however, have rushed ahead, pricing in more easing and healthier profits than some economists think is wise. Steven Englander of Standard Chartered warned late last year that investors may be going “a little bit too far” in assuming smooth inflation and generous Fed cuts, adding that such optimism “could come back and haunt parts of the market at the beginning of next year”.
Tech holds the spotlight
While the broader market cools, big tech continues to behave as if reading from a different script. The Nasdaq has held up better than the Dow this week, helped by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the companies building the tools behind it. Alphabet, in particular, has stolen the scene. After a sharp rally, Google’s parent briefly overtook Apple in market value for the first time since 2019, closing around 3.88 trillion dollars versus Apple’s 3.84 trillion dollars.
That crossover symbolises more than a leaderboard shuffle. Analysts point to Alphabet’s aggressive AI strategy, from its Gemini models to custom chips, as the engine behind the move. As TradingKey noted, “Google’s market cap surpassing Apple stems from the increasingly apparent divergence in the two companies’ artificial intelligence strategies.” Apple, by contrast, has been penalised for delays and a less convincing generative AI roadmap, reminding investors that even giants can lose momentum when they fall behind a narrative as powerful as AI.
Zoom out, and the story of today’s market is not one of collapse, but of a long rally meeting a harder set of questions. Can the Fed cut as much as traders hope? Will AI profits grow fast enough to justify eye‑watering valuations? For now, Wall Street is not slamming the door on risk. It is simply turning down the music, checking the exits and deciding who it wants to dance with next.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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The party did not end with a crash, but with a quiet shuffle to the exits. After a roaring start to 2026, US stock futures slipped on Thursday morning, hinting that Wall Street’s winning run may finally be catching its breath. The Dow and S&P 500, both near record highs after a multi‑year rally powered by artificial intelligence and easy money, are now edging lower as traders turn their eyes to a familiar antagonist: economic data. Weekly jobless claims and the next non‑farm payrolls report sit on the horizon like a plot twist investors know is coming, even if they do not yet know the ending.
A rally meets reality
The mood on trading desks feels less like panic and more like a reality check. S&P 500 futures are slightly in the red, extending Wednesday’s modest pullback, while Dow futures signal another soft open after the index dropped more than 400 points the previous session. In points, that sounds dramatic; in percentage terms, it is the kind of move long‑time investors barely flinch at.
Strategists have been warning that this year would test nerves. Carnegie’s January briefing captured the tone: headlines scream “plunge”, but many of these moves are “less than 1%” and part of normal market noise. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report put it more bluntly when talking about the 2026 outlook: the bull market can continue, but only “if the four pillars” of AI, steady growth, monetary easing and tariff stability hold up. Any wobble in one of those pillars, he argued, turns routine dips into something more sinister.
That tension is visible today. The Federal Reserve has already cut rates and now walks a narrow path between supporting growth and keeping its inflation credibility intact. Markets, however, have rushed ahead, pricing in more easing and healthier profits than some economists think is wise. Steven Englander of Standard Chartered warned late last year that investors may be going “a little bit too far” in assuming smooth inflation and generous Fed cuts, adding that such optimism “could come back and haunt parts of the market at the beginning of next year”.
Tech holds the spotlight
While the broader market cools, big tech continues to behave as if reading from a different script. The Nasdaq has held up better than the Dow this week, helped by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the companies building the tools behind it. Alphabet, in particular, has stolen the scene. After a sharp rally, Google’s parent briefly overtook Apple in market value for the first time since 2019, closing around 3.88 trillion dollars versus Apple’s 3.84 trillion dollars.
That crossover symbolises more than a leaderboard shuffle. Analysts point to Alphabet’s aggressive AI strategy, from its Gemini models to custom chips, as the engine behind the move. As TradingKey noted, “Google’s market cap surpassing Apple stems from the increasingly apparent divergence in the two companies’ artificial intelligence strategies.” Apple, by contrast, has been penalised for delays and a less convincing generative AI roadmap, reminding investors that even giants can lose momentum when they fall behind a narrative as powerful as AI.
Zoom out, and the story of today’s market is not one of collapse, but of a long rally meeting a harder set of questions. Can the Fed cut as much as traders hope? Will AI profits grow fast enough to justify eye‑watering valuations? For now, Wall Street is not slamming the door on risk. It is simply turning down the music, checking the exits and deciding who it wants to dance with next.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs