Markets hold their breath as Wall Street waits for judgement day
For once, Wall Street is not racing anywhere. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are barely moving, as if traders have collectively taken their hands off the wheel and set the car to neutral. Indexes are still heading for weekly gains, but the real story is not where prices are this morning; it is what everyone expects could happen by tonight.
Two events now sit like twin cliff edges in front of the market: a crucial US jobs report for December and a potentially historic Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Analysts at Rabobank call today “a further easing in the US labour market, but not weak enough to force the Fed’s hand,” as investors weigh how far the central bank may go with rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the court must decide whether Trump overstepped his authority with aggressive duties that have reshaped global trade flows and rattled risk assets from New York to Mumbai.
The calm before the data
In early trading, futures are hugging the flatline because nobody wants to take a large position just hours before the numbers hit the tape. Economists polled by Reuters expect around 60,000–70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate hovering near 4.5%, a pace that signals cooling but not collapse. As one strategist at Capital.com puts it, “what we don’t want is an upside surprise on job creation,” a line that neatly captures how good news for workers can now be bad news for rate‑cut hopes.
Bond markets and currencies are just as cagey. The dollar has edged higher, helped by the prospect that a firmer labour market could delay or reduce the number of rate cuts traders currently price in for 2026. “Right now, markets are pricing in two rate cuts,” notes another analyst; a strong print could see that expectation “pared back” and push yields higher, which usually puts pressure on richly valued growth stocks.
The tariff wildcard
If the jobs report is the scheduled drama, the Supreme Court ruling is the unscripted twist. The justices will rule on whether Trump’s far‑reaching tariffs can stand, after openly questioning the extent of his powers during November’s hearings. Rabobank’s team warns that “an unfavourable ruling for the US president could trigger a new wave of uncertainty,” even as they concede that stocks might initially jump if the court strikes the tariffs down.
Equity analysts see that jump coming from improved profit margins and lower input costs, especially for global manufacturers and consumer‑facing businesses. One chief investment officer suggests such a verdict could act as a “catalyst for a little bit of a rally,” as investors rush to reprice earnings for 2026. But the same move could widen the budget deficit and complicate the Fed’s task, potentially putting fresh downward pressure on Treasuries.
So, Wall Street waits. Defence stocks that surged on expectations of a larger 2027 budget have paused; tech remains under scrutiny after recent wobbles; and all three major US indexes are still on track to finish the first full week of 2026 in the green. By the end of the day, though, the market narrative may have shifted from quiet optimism to full‑blown volatility — depending on what the data say, and how the nine justices choose to redraw the boundaries of presidential power.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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For once, Wall Street is not racing anywhere. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are barely moving, as if traders have collectively taken their hands off the wheel and set the car to neutral. Indexes are still heading for weekly gains, but the real story is not where prices are this morning; it is what everyone expects could happen by tonight.
Two events now sit like twin cliff edges in front of the market: a crucial US jobs report for December and a potentially historic Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Analysts at Rabobank call today “a further easing in the US labour market, but not weak enough to force the Fed’s hand,” as investors weigh how far the central bank may go with rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the court must decide whether Trump overstepped his authority with aggressive duties that have reshaped global trade flows and rattled risk assets from New York to Mumbai.
The calm before the data
In early trading, futures are hugging the flatline because nobody wants to take a large position just hours before the numbers hit the tape. Economists polled by Reuters expect around 60,000–70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate hovering near 4.5%, a pace that signals cooling but not collapse. As one strategist at Capital.com puts it, “what we don’t want is an upside surprise on job creation,” a line that neatly captures how good news for workers can now be bad news for rate‑cut hopes.
Bond markets and currencies are just as cagey. The dollar has edged higher, helped by the prospect that a firmer labour market could delay or reduce the number of rate cuts traders currently price in for 2026. “Right now, markets are pricing in two rate cuts,” notes another analyst; a strong print could see that expectation “pared back” and push yields higher, which usually puts pressure on richly valued growth stocks.
The tariff wildcard
If the jobs report is the scheduled drama, the Supreme Court ruling is the unscripted twist. The justices will rule on whether Trump’s far‑reaching tariffs can stand, after openly questioning the extent of his powers during November’s hearings. Rabobank’s team warns that “an unfavourable ruling for the US president could trigger a new wave of uncertainty,” even as they concede that stocks might initially jump if the court strikes the tariffs down.
Equity analysts see that jump coming from improved profit margins and lower input costs, especially for global manufacturers and consumer‑facing businesses. One chief investment officer suggests such a verdict could act as a “catalyst for a little bit of a rally,” as investors rush to reprice earnings for 2026. But the same move could widen the budget deficit and complicate the Fed’s task, potentially putting fresh downward pressure on Treasuries.
So, Wall Street waits. Defence stocks that surged on expectations of a larger 2027 budget have paused; tech remains under scrutiny after recent wobbles; and all three major US indexes are still on track to finish the first full week of 2026 in the green. By the end of the day, though, the market narrative may have shifted from quiet optimism to full‑blown volatility — depending on what the data say, and how the nine justices choose to redraw the boundaries of presidential power.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs