Same-Store sales growth: Analysing retail companies
Same-store sales growth measures revenue changes from stores open at least 12 months. This metric strips out new store openings to reveal actual organic performance. For Indian investors targeting U.S. retail giants like Walmart, Costco, and Target, understanding SSS provides a powerful lens for distinguishing genuinely thriving retailers from companies merely expanding.
Mastering fundamental analysis tools for Indian investors provides a solid foundation for evaluating critical retail performance metrics.
The current retail landscape shows striking divergence. Value-focused Walmart and Costco delivered +4.6% and +6.4% comparable store sales, respectively, in late 2024. Home improvement giants Home Depot and Lowe's just emerged from eight consecutive quarters of declines. Meanwhile, Starbucks achieved its first positive U.S. traffic growth in eight quarters under new leadership. These SSS trends signal crucial turnaround moments that move stock prices.
What same-store sales actuallymeans
Same-store sales go by several names. Retailers call it comparable store sales, comps, or like-for-like growth interchangeably. The metric compares revenue from identical store locations across two time periods. Only stores that have operated for a minimum period qualify for the calculation.
The 12-month threshold serves as the industry standard. Stores must operate for at least one full year before entering the comp base. This eliminates artificial boosts from grand opening promotions. It also enables locations to achieve normalised sales patterns. Some retailers extend this to 13-14 months. Others add a 60-day buffer after the 12-month mark to account for post-opening volatility.
Several store categories get excluded from comparable calculations. Newly opened stores under 12 months old stay out. Permanently closed locations drop from the base. Relocated stores are typically treated as new until they requalify. Stores undergoing major renovations receive varied treatment depending on company policy. Locations with significant changes in square footage also require special handling.
How retailers calculate same-store sales
The core SSS formula appears deceptively simple:
SSS Growth = [(Current Period Sales − Prior Period Sales) / Prior Period Sales] × 100
Consider a practical example. A pizza chain operates 100 stores, generating $200,000 total in 2023. That averages $2,000 per store. In 2024, they expanded to 125 stores and generated $400,000 in total revenue. Total growth appears spectacular at +100%. But examining only the original 100 stores, which now generate $320,000, shows actual comparable growth of 60%. The 40-percentage-point difference represents expansion contribution rather than organic performance improvement.
Calendar alignment matters enormously. Most major US retailers use the 4-5-4 calendar system established by the National Retail Federation. This divides the year into quarters of 13 weeks. Each quarter consists of 4 weeks, 5 weeks, and 4 weeks. This structure ensures that each comparable period contains the same number of weekends. Weekend sales represent 40-60% of weekly revenue for most retailers. Approximately every 5-6 years, retailers add a 53rd week to realign calendars. This creates comparison challenges requiring disclosed adjustments.
Why SSS reveals organic growth versus expansion illusion
Same-store sales function as a truth serum for retail health. It eliminates inorganic growth factors. A company reporting 24% total revenue growth while showing 3% SSS reveals a troubling reality. Existing stores actually weaken while aggressive expansion masks fundamental problems.
Traffic versus ticket decomposition provides more profound insight. SSS breaks into two components. Customer transactions represent traffic. Average transaction value represents the ticket. Sustainable growth generally requires increasing traffic. More customers choosing your stores signals brand strength. Ticket-driven growth through price increases may boost short-term comps. However, it often proves unsustainable without corresponding traffic gains.
The growth stage dramatically affects SSS expectations. Early-stage retailers pursuing aggressive expansion may accept lower comps. Even flat performance works if unit economics remain strong and cannibalisation stays manageable. Mature retailers with limited expansion opportunities depend almost entirely on SSS performance. Negative comps become existential threats for saturated chains.
Real company performance reveals market conditions.
Recent quarterly results paint a detailed picture of U.S. retail health across sectors.
Value retailers demonstrate resilience. Walmart U.S. posted +4.6% comparable sales in Q4 FY25. Transactions increased 4.3%, while the average ticket declined slightly. This indicates genuine customer traffic gains rather than price-driven growth. Higher-income households increasingly shop at Walmart. The company gains market share even as lower-income consumers remain financially constrained.
Costco delivered +6.4% total comparable sales in Q1 FY26. U.S. comps reached +5.9% with e-commerce surging +20.5%. Membership renewal rates of 90.4% underscore exceptional customer loyalty. The warehouse club model continues gaining share across income demographics.
Home improvement emerges from extended weakness. Home Depot achieved +0.8% comparable sales in Q4 FY24. This marked its first positive quarter after eight consecutive quarterly declines. Customer transactions jumped 7.6% year-over-year. However, full-year 2024 comp remained at -1.8%. Lowe's similarly returned to positive territory, up 0.2%. Management cited hurricane-related demand contributing approximately 100 basis points. Both retailers' guidance is for roughly flat to +1% comps in fiscal 2025.
The restaurant sector shows divergence. Chipotle achieved +5.4% comparable restaurant sales in Q4 2024. Transactions drove the growth at +4.0%, with no pricing. This indicates genuine demand strength. McDonald's reported a 1.4% decline in U.S. comparable sales. E. coli outbreak impacts contributed, but value perception challenges among lower-income consumers played larger roles. Starbucks demonstrated the power of SSS tracking for turnaround investors. Q1 FY26 comps reached +4% globally, with the first positive U.S. transaction growth in eight quarters.
Dollar stores face margin pressure. Dollar General reported +1.2% Q4 FY24 same-store sales. Average transaction rose 2.3%, but traffic declined 1.1%. Customers spend slightly more per trip but visit less frequently. Management acknowledged that consumers have money only for essentials.
Industry benchmarks vary dramatically by sector.
Understanding what constitutes good SSS requires sector context.
Same-store sales complement essential financial ratios every investor should understand to build a complete picture of a retail company's health.
Overall retail targets 3-5% as a healthy range. Performance below the inflation rate raises concerns. Grocery and supermarket chains consider 2-4% healthy, with sustained negative results concerning. Discount retailers target 3-5%, with below-0 % raises raising alarms. Department stores consider any positive growth health, while growth below -5% signals deep trouble.
Home improvement typically targets 2-4% with multi-quarter negative results. Speciality apparel expects 3-6% with multi-quarter declines worrying investors. Quick-service restaurants target 2-4% as healthy; multi-quarter negative results are problematic. Dollar stores consider 1-3% healthy, given market saturation and sustained negative results.
Inflation interpretation matters critically. With consumer prices running approximately 2.5% annually, SSS growth below inflation indicates declining real sales. Volume actually decreased despite higher dollar figures. Restaurant prices increased 33% since 2019, versus 26% for groceries. This partly explains casual dining's relative strength, as consumers perceive it as offering better value than quick-service options.
Multi-quarter trends outweigh single-quarter results. One or two quarters of negative comps warrant monitoring, but not necessarily alarm; three or more consecutive quarters of negative results signal structural problems requiring intervention. Home Depot and Lowe's demonstrated this pattern before their recent stabilisation.
E-commerce transforms how companies measure store performance.
The omnichannel era creates significant measurement challenges. No industry-wide standard exists for handling digital sales in comparable calculations.
BOPIS treatment varies dramatically among retailers. Buy Online Pickup In Store transactions get counted differently. Some retailers, such as Macy's, count BOPIS as online sales through separate e-commerce divisions. Others count these as in-store purchases. Retailers emphasising store traffic prefer the latter treatment. US BOPIS retail sales totalled $132.8 billion in 2024. This accounts for 9.93% of e-commerce and grows at approximately 16.7% annually.
Digital contribution creates comparison challenges across companies. Target provides exemplary transparency. The company reports digital comparable sales at +8.7% in Q4 FY24, separately from store comps at -0.5%. Walmart reports that e-commerce contributed approximately 3.5 percentage points to its 4.5% comparable sales growth in Q2 2025. Investors comparing retailers must understand whether digital sales are included differently across the companies being analysed.
Amazon commands 40.6% of the U.S. e-commerce market share, compared with Walmart's 9.4%. Traditional retailers responded by transforming stores into fulfilment hubs. Physical presence provides a competitive advantage for same-day pickup compared with Amazon's delivery-only model. E-commerce now represents 16.4% of total U.S. retail sales as of Q3 2025.
Seasonal and calendar factors require careful adjustment
Easter's movable date creates quarter-to-quarter distortions. The holiday can shift 100+ basis points between Q1 and Q2. Publix explicitly disclosed that Q2 2025 results benefited from Easter falling during Q2 this year. Net earnings jumped 41%+ year-over-year, partly from holiday timing rather than operational improvement.
Weather impacts are quantifiable and persistent. Research shows 3.4% of retail sales are directly affected by weather. This represents approximately $1 trillion globally. Bad-weather days cause 25-40% sales losses that are not recovered later. Good weather benefits tend to get offset in the ensuing weeks. Major retailers, including Macy's, Kohl's, and Home Depot, regularly cite weather in earnings calls. Repeated weather excuses without quantified impacts may mask operational issues that occur every 5-6 years, creating non-comparable periods. Recent 53-week years included FY2017 and FY2023. Walmart handles this by comparing the 53rd week to the first week of the same year. Others simply exclude it from comparable analysis. Investors should verify whether reported comps include adjustments.
SSS limitations investors should recognise
Survivorship bias distorts the picture. Since SSS only measures surviving stores, closing underperforming locations mechanically improves the remaining average. A retailer shuttering weak stores may show improving comps while actually experiencing business deterioration.
Several red flags in SSS reporting warrant attention. Total sales are growing significantly, while SSS declines signal cannibalisation from over-expansion. Positive SSS below analyst expectations still triggers stock declines because context matters more than absolute numbers. Frequent changes to comparable store definitions or calculation methodologies raise questions. SSS growth driven primarily by price increases without traffic growth suggests unsustainable patterns. Repeated calendar or weather excuses without quantified adjustments deserve scepticism.
Several major retailers stopped monthly SSS reporting. Walmart discontinued monthly reports in 2009. Home Depot, Lowe's, and Best Buy followed. Reasons include reducing short-term stock volatility and aligning management focus with long-term shareholders. Critics note that transparency reduction often coincides with deteriorating performance. Currently, only about 9-24 retailers still report monthly comps. Costco remains a notable exception, reporting on the first Thursday of each month.
Accessing SSS data as an Indian investor
Free sources for U.S. retail SSS data include SEC EDGAR at sec.gov, where 10-K and 10-Q filings contain SSS in the Management Discussion and Analysis section. Company investor relations websites provide earnings releases, presentations, and transcripts. Seeking Alpha offers earnings call transcripts with free account access. Yahoo Finance provides earnings calendars and select transcripts.
Monthly reporting retailers still include Costco, Gap, and Bath & Body Works. Most major retailers now report quarterly. Results typically arrive 2-4 weeks after quarter-end. Holiday-quarter results covering November-December are particularly critical for retail stock movements.
Currency and regulatory considerations apply to Indian investors. U.S. stock returns must incorporate USD/INR fluctuations. Dividends are subject to a 25% withholding, though this may be reduced under tax treaties. The Liberalised Remittance Scheme allows $250,000 annually for overseas investments. Platforms such as Interactive Brokers, Vested, and INDmoney provide U.S. stock access to Indian residents.
Same-store sales remain the most critical metric for evaluating retail company health. The January 2026 landscape reveals clear winners: value-focused Walmart and Costco, emerging alongside recovery stories like Starbucks and Home Depot, which are emerging from extended weakness. Always decompose SSS into traffic versus ticket components to assess sustainability. Compare performance against sector benchmarks rather than absolute numbers—track multi-quarter trends rather than single-period results. Most importantly, recognises that positive SSS below expectations can still damage stock prices. What analysts predicted matters as much as what was reported.
The metric's most significant value lies in exposing the difference between genuine organic growth and expansion-driven illusions. A company delivering consistent traffic-driven same-store sales growth demonstrates real brand strength and operational excellence. These characteristics compound value over time regardless of how many new stores they open.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Table of Contents
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Same-store sales growth measures revenue changes from stores open at least 12 months. This metric strips out new store openings to reveal actual organic performance. For Indian investors targeting U.S. retail giants like Walmart, Costco, and Target, understanding SSS provides a powerful lens for distinguishing genuinely thriving retailers from companies merely expanding.
Mastering fundamental analysis tools for Indian investors provides a solid foundation for evaluating critical retail performance metrics.
The current retail landscape shows striking divergence. Value-focused Walmart and Costco delivered +4.6% and +6.4% comparable store sales, respectively, in late 2024. Home improvement giants Home Depot and Lowe's just emerged from eight consecutive quarters of declines. Meanwhile, Starbucks achieved its first positive U.S. traffic growth in eight quarters under new leadership. These SSS trends signal crucial turnaround moments that move stock prices.
What same-store sales actuallymeans
Same-store sales go by several names. Retailers call it comparable store sales, comps, or like-for-like growth interchangeably. The metric compares revenue from identical store locations across two time periods. Only stores that have operated for a minimum period qualify for the calculation.
The 12-month threshold serves as the industry standard. Stores must operate for at least one full year before entering the comp base. This eliminates artificial boosts from grand opening promotions. It also enables locations to achieve normalised sales patterns. Some retailers extend this to 13-14 months. Others add a 60-day buffer after the 12-month mark to account for post-opening volatility.
Several store categories get excluded from comparable calculations. Newly opened stores under 12 months old stay out. Permanently closed locations drop from the base. Relocated stores are typically treated as new until they requalify. Stores undergoing major renovations receive varied treatment depending on company policy. Locations with significant changes in square footage also require special handling.
How retailers calculate same-store sales
The core SSS formula appears deceptively simple:
SSS Growth = [(Current Period Sales − Prior Period Sales) / Prior Period Sales] × 100
Consider a practical example. A pizza chain operates 100 stores, generating $200,000 total in 2023. That averages $2,000 per store. In 2024, they expanded to 125 stores and generated $400,000 in total revenue. Total growth appears spectacular at +100%. But examining only the original 100 stores, which now generate $320,000, shows actual comparable growth of 60%. The 40-percentage-point difference represents expansion contribution rather than organic performance improvement.
Calendar alignment matters enormously. Most major US retailers use the 4-5-4 calendar system established by the National Retail Federation. This divides the year into quarters of 13 weeks. Each quarter consists of 4 weeks, 5 weeks, and 4 weeks. This structure ensures that each comparable period contains the same number of weekends. Weekend sales represent 40-60% of weekly revenue for most retailers. Approximately every 5-6 years, retailers add a 53rd week to realign calendars. This creates comparison challenges requiring disclosed adjustments.
Why SSS reveals organic growth versus expansion illusion
Same-store sales function as a truth serum for retail health. It eliminates inorganic growth factors. A company reporting 24% total revenue growth while showing 3% SSS reveals a troubling reality. Existing stores actually weaken while aggressive expansion masks fundamental problems.
Traffic versus ticket decomposition provides more profound insight. SSS breaks into two components. Customer transactions represent traffic. Average transaction value represents the ticket. Sustainable growth generally requires increasing traffic. More customers choosing your stores signals brand strength. Ticket-driven growth through price increases may boost short-term comps. However, it often proves unsustainable without corresponding traffic gains.
The growth stage dramatically affects SSS expectations. Early-stage retailers pursuing aggressive expansion may accept lower comps. Even flat performance works if unit economics remain strong and cannibalisation stays manageable. Mature retailers with limited expansion opportunities depend almost entirely on SSS performance. Negative comps become existential threats for saturated chains.
Real company performance reveals market conditions.
Recent quarterly results paint a detailed picture of U.S. retail health across sectors.
Value retailers demonstrate resilience. Walmart U.S. posted +4.6% comparable sales in Q4 FY25. Transactions increased 4.3%, while the average ticket declined slightly. This indicates genuine customer traffic gains rather than price-driven growth. Higher-income households increasingly shop at Walmart. The company gains market share even as lower-income consumers remain financially constrained.
Costco delivered +6.4% total comparable sales in Q1 FY26. U.S. comps reached +5.9% with e-commerce surging +20.5%. Membership renewal rates of 90.4% underscore exceptional customer loyalty. The warehouse club model continues gaining share across income demographics.
Home improvement emerges from extended weakness. Home Depot achieved +0.8% comparable sales in Q4 FY24. This marked its first positive quarter after eight consecutive quarterly declines. Customer transactions jumped 7.6% year-over-year. However, full-year 2024 comp remained at -1.8%. Lowe's similarly returned to positive territory, up 0.2%. Management cited hurricane-related demand contributing approximately 100 basis points. Both retailers' guidance is for roughly flat to +1% comps in fiscal 2025.
The restaurant sector shows divergence. Chipotle achieved +5.4% comparable restaurant sales in Q4 2024. Transactions drove the growth at +4.0%, with no pricing. This indicates genuine demand strength. McDonald's reported a 1.4% decline in U.S. comparable sales. E. coli outbreak impacts contributed, but value perception challenges among lower-income consumers played larger roles. Starbucks demonstrated the power of SSS tracking for turnaround investors. Q1 FY26 comps reached +4% globally, with the first positive U.S. transaction growth in eight quarters.
Dollar stores face margin pressure. Dollar General reported +1.2% Q4 FY24 same-store sales. Average transaction rose 2.3%, but traffic declined 1.1%. Customers spend slightly more per trip but visit less frequently. Management acknowledged that consumers have money only for essentials.
Industry benchmarks vary dramatically by sector.
Understanding what constitutes good SSS requires sector context.
Same-store sales complement essential financial ratios every investor should understand to build a complete picture of a retail company's health.
Overall retail targets 3-5% as a healthy range. Performance below the inflation rate raises concerns. Grocery and supermarket chains consider 2-4% healthy, with sustained negative results concerning. Discount retailers target 3-5%, with below-0 % raises raising alarms. Department stores consider any positive growth health, while growth below -5% signals deep trouble.
Home improvement typically targets 2-4% with multi-quarter negative results. Speciality apparel expects 3-6% with multi-quarter declines worrying investors. Quick-service restaurants target 2-4% as healthy; multi-quarter negative results are problematic. Dollar stores consider 1-3% healthy, given market saturation and sustained negative results.
Inflation interpretation matters critically. With consumer prices running approximately 2.5% annually, SSS growth below inflation indicates declining real sales. Volume actually decreased despite higher dollar figures. Restaurant prices increased 33% since 2019, versus 26% for groceries. This partly explains casual dining's relative strength, as consumers perceive it as offering better value than quick-service options.
Multi-quarter trends outweigh single-quarter results. One or two quarters of negative comps warrant monitoring, but not necessarily alarm; three or more consecutive quarters of negative results signal structural problems requiring intervention. Home Depot and Lowe's demonstrated this pattern before their recent stabilisation.
E-commerce transforms how companies measure store performance.
The omnichannel era creates significant measurement challenges. No industry-wide standard exists for handling digital sales in comparable calculations.
BOPIS treatment varies dramatically among retailers. Buy Online Pickup In Store transactions get counted differently. Some retailers, such as Macy's, count BOPIS as online sales through separate e-commerce divisions. Others count these as in-store purchases. Retailers emphasising store traffic prefer the latter treatment. US BOPIS retail sales totalled $132.8 billion in 2024. This accounts for 9.93% of e-commerce and grows at approximately 16.7% annually.
Digital contribution creates comparison challenges across companies. Target provides exemplary transparency. The company reports digital comparable sales at +8.7% in Q4 FY24, separately from store comps at -0.5%. Walmart reports that e-commerce contributed approximately 3.5 percentage points to its 4.5% comparable sales growth in Q2 2025. Investors comparing retailers must understand whether digital sales are included differently across the companies being analysed.
Amazon commands 40.6% of the U.S. e-commerce market share, compared with Walmart's 9.4%. Traditional retailers responded by transforming stores into fulfilment hubs. Physical presence provides a competitive advantage for same-day pickup compared with Amazon's delivery-only model. E-commerce now represents 16.4% of total U.S. retail sales as of Q3 2025.
Seasonal and calendar factors require careful adjustment
Easter's movable date creates quarter-to-quarter distortions. The holiday can shift 100+ basis points between Q1 and Q2. Publix explicitly disclosed that Q2 2025 results benefited from Easter falling during Q2 this year. Net earnings jumped 41%+ year-over-year, partly from holiday timing rather than operational improvement.
Weather impacts are quantifiable and persistent. Research shows 3.4% of retail sales are directly affected by weather. This represents approximately $1 trillion globally. Bad-weather days cause 25-40% sales losses that are not recovered later. Good weather benefits tend to get offset in the ensuing weeks. Major retailers, including Macy's, Kohl's, and Home Depot, regularly cite weather in earnings calls. Repeated weather excuses without quantified impacts may mask operational issues that occur every 5-6 years, creating non-comparable periods. Recent 53-week years included FY2017 and FY2023. Walmart handles this by comparing the 53rd week to the first week of the same year. Others simply exclude it from comparable analysis. Investors should verify whether reported comps include adjustments.
SSS limitations investors should recognise
Survivorship bias distorts the picture. Since SSS only measures surviving stores, closing underperforming locations mechanically improves the remaining average. A retailer shuttering weak stores may show improving comps while actually experiencing business deterioration.
Several red flags in SSS reporting warrant attention. Total sales are growing significantly, while SSS declines signal cannibalisation from over-expansion. Positive SSS below analyst expectations still triggers stock declines because context matters more than absolute numbers. Frequent changes to comparable store definitions or calculation methodologies raise questions. SSS growth driven primarily by price increases without traffic growth suggests unsustainable patterns. Repeated calendar or weather excuses without quantified adjustments deserve scepticism.
Several major retailers stopped monthly SSS reporting. Walmart discontinued monthly reports in 2009. Home Depot, Lowe's, and Best Buy followed. Reasons include reducing short-term stock volatility and aligning management focus with long-term shareholders. Critics note that transparency reduction often coincides with deteriorating performance. Currently, only about 9-24 retailers still report monthly comps. Costco remains a notable exception, reporting on the first Thursday of each month.
Accessing SSS data as an Indian investor
Free sources for U.S. retail SSS data include SEC EDGAR at sec.gov, where 10-K and 10-Q filings contain SSS in the Management Discussion and Analysis section. Company investor relations websites provide earnings releases, presentations, and transcripts. Seeking Alpha offers earnings call transcripts with free account access. Yahoo Finance provides earnings calendars and select transcripts.
Monthly reporting retailers still include Costco, Gap, and Bath & Body Works. Most major retailers now report quarterly. Results typically arrive 2-4 weeks after quarter-end. Holiday-quarter results covering November-December are particularly critical for retail stock movements.
Currency and regulatory considerations apply to Indian investors. U.S. stock returns must incorporate USD/INR fluctuations. Dividends are subject to a 25% withholding, though this may be reduced under tax treaties. The Liberalised Remittance Scheme allows $250,000 annually for overseas investments. Platforms such as Interactive Brokers, Vested, and INDmoney provide U.S. stock access to Indian residents.
Same-store sales remain the most critical metric for evaluating retail company health. The January 2026 landscape reveals clear winners: value-focused Walmart and Costco, emerging alongside recovery stories like Starbucks and Home Depot, which are emerging from extended weakness. Always decompose SSS into traffic versus ticket components to assess sustainability. Compare performance against sector benchmarks rather than absolute numbers—track multi-quarter trends rather than single-period results. Most importantly, recognises that positive SSS below expectations can still damage stock prices. What analysts predicted matters as much as what was reported.
The metric's most significant value lies in exposing the difference between genuine organic growth and expansion-driven illusions. A company delivering consistent traffic-driven same-store sales growth demonstrates real brand strength and operational excellence. These characteristics compound value over time regardless of how many new stores they open.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs
