NASDAQ fintech stocks: Digital payment revolution for Indian portfolios
The fintech sector enters February 2026 at a critical inflexion point. PayPal's CEO departure and earnings miss triggered a 20% stock crash. Meanwhile, Coinbase celebrates the complete dismissal of the SEC lawsuit that had hung over crypto markets for years. For Indian investors, NASDAQ fintech stocks now trade at the most attractive valuations in three years. PayPal trades at just 7x forward free cash flow, while Coinbase accounts for 46.6% of Layer 2 DeFi through its Base blockchain. The combination of regulatory clarity in the US and India's favorable 12.5% LTCG tax rate creates a compelling window to build positions in digital payments infrastructure.
PayPal analysis: Turmoil creates opportunity
PayPal reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, missing Wall Street expectations. The board announced the departure of CEO Alex Chriss, effective March 1, 2026. Revenue of $8.68 billion (+4% YoY) fell short of the expected $8.80 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.29 consensus. The stock immediately declined to $40-$42, down from $52 pre-earnings.
The core problem lies in branded checkout deceleration. Online branded checkout volume grew just 1% in Q4, collapsing from 5% in Q3 and 7% a year ago. Management withdrew 2027 guidance entirely, providing outlook only one year at a time.
Yet the investment case remains compelling. Total Payment Volume reached $475.1 billion for Q4 and approximately $1.79 trillion for full-year 2025, growing 9% YoY. Venmo revenue hit $1.7 billion (+20%), with debit card TPV surging 50%. The PYUSD stablecoin reached a $3.9 billion market cap, ranking as the sixth-largest stablecoin globally.
PayPal key metrics (February 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock Price | $40-42 |
| Market Cap | ~$40 billion |
| Revenue | $8.68B (+4% YoY) |
| TPV | $475.1B (+9% YoY) |
| Active Accounts | 439 million |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x |
| Analyst Consensus | Hold (target $70-77) |
At 8.5x forward P/E and 11-15% free cash flow yield, the stock may be pricing in excessive pessimism.
Block (Square) overview: Bitcoin conviction meets payments growth
Block trades at $56.79 with a $34.5 billion market cap, awaiting Q4 2025 results scheduled for February 26, 2026. The company changed its ticker from SQ to XYZ in January 2025 and joined the S&P 500 in July 2025.
Cash App remains the growth engine, generating $1.62 billion gross profit in Q3 2025 (+24% YoY) from its 57 million monthly active users. Gross profit per active reached $94 annuallyised (+25 %), though this trails Chime's $245 ARPU, suggesting a significant monetisation opportunity. Cash App Card users grew to 25 million with 27% YoY expansion.
Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin vision now permeates every product line. Block holds 8,584 BTC (cost basis ~$261 million, market value ~$783 million). The company purchases 10% of the monthly Bitcoin gross profit for the treasury. In August 2025, Block launched the Proto Mining System—modular Bitcoin mining hardware designed to challenge Bitmain's 80% market monopoly.
Afterpay's BNPL segment delivered $9.70 billion GMV in Q3 (+17% YoY), with 96% of payments made on time and 95%+ of GMV from returning customers. Square's seller ecosystem processed $67.2 billion GPV in Q3 (+12% YoY), with international GPV growing 26%.
Analyst consensus remains Buy with an average price target of $79-84, implying 45%+ upside from current levels.
Coinbase considerations: Regulatory victory transforms outlook
The SEC's dismissal of its enforcement case against Coinbase in February 2025 fundamentally altered the crypto exchange's investment profile. The lawsuit, filed in June 2023, alleging unregistered securities offerings, had cast a shadow over Coinbase's entire business model. With regulatory clarity restored, Coinbase now operates with unprecedented legitimacy.
The stock trades at $169-$189 (down 19.7% YTD as Bitcoin fell below $80,000), with a market capitalisation of $50.7 billion. Q3 2025 showed $1.9 billion revenue (+58% YoY), $433 million net income, and $1.44 EPS, beating estimates by 30%. Subscription and services revenue reached $747 million.
Base blockchain represents Coinbase's most underappreciated asset. The Layer 2 solution captures 46.6% of all L2 DeFi TVL and handles aValueimately 50% of L2 DEX volume. Total value locked grew from $3.1 billion in January 2025 to over $5.6 billion by October.
Coinbase Prime manages 12% of the total crypto market cap (~$400 billion in assets) and serves as the primary custodian for 8 of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. This institutional infrastructure provides a stable revenue stream regardless of retail trading volatility.
Analyst consensus is Buy with average targets of $322-380, implying 70-100% upside from current levels.
Digital payment trends reshaping global finance
Global digital payments reached $24.07 trillion in transaction value in 2025 and are projected to reach $36.09 trillion by 2030 with an 8.44% CAGR. Real-time payments emerged as the transformative force.
Mobile wallet dominance accelerates:
- Apple Pay: 659-785 million global users, $8.7 trillion processed, 54% US in-store mobile wallet share
- Google Pay: 200-820 million global users, $5.2 trillion processed, 54% India market share
- PayPal: 47.4% online payments market share, Venmo at 22.4% US digital payment share
India's UPI processed 228.3 billion transactions valued at ₹299.7 lakh crore (~$3.5 trillion) in 2025, growing 32.5% YoY. UPI now accounts for 84% of India's digital payments and processes more daily transactions than Visa globally.
AI in fraud detection reached 91% adoption among US banks, with 47% of businesses using AI specifically for fraud prevention. The technology achieves 90% accuracy in fraud identification while reducing false positives by 80% versus legacy systems.
ToTokenisationomentum builds toward universal adoption. 85% of online merchants now use tokenisation, while Visa and Mastercard aim to achieve 100% totokenisationy 2030.
Buy now, pay later companies: Affirm leads, Klarna struggles
Affirm Holdings achieved sustained GAAP profitability. Q1 FY2026 (September quarter) delivered $933.3 million revenue (+34% YoY), $10.8 billion GMV (+42%), and $0.23 EPS versus $0.11 expected. Active consumers reached 23 million (+24%).
The Amazon partnership—representing 23% of Affirm's GMV—was extended through January 2031 with auto-renewal provisions. Affirm Card users reached 2.8 million, with GMV growing 132%. At $76-83 per share with a $24-25 billion market cap, the analyst consensus is Moderate Buy with average targets of $87-95.
Klarna's September 2025 IPO—the largest US IPO of the year at $15 billion valuation—has disappointed investors. The stock opened at $52 but now trades at $21-$25, down by more than 50% from its highs. Multiple class action lawsuits allege misleading statements regarding loss reserve risks.
Sezzle emerged as the surprise winner, joining the S&P SmallCap 600 in December 2025 after explosive growth. Q3 2025 revenue hit $116.8 million (+67% YoY) with $26.7 million net income. At $63-70 per share with 85% gross margin and 27-28% net margin, Sezzle trades at just 19-20x P/E.
Other notable fintech stocks:
| Company | Stock Price | Market Cap | Key Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoFi | $20-22 | $27.7B | First $1B revenue quarter |
| Robinhood | $86-108 | $78-98B | +204% gain in 2025 |
| Adyen | €1,375 | €39.9B | 50% EBITDA margin |
| Toast | $28-34 | $17B | 156,000 restaurant locations |
SoFi reported record Q4 2025 results with $1.01 billion in revenue (+40% YoY) and $174 million in net income. Members reached 13.7 million (+35%). Robinhood joined the S&P 500 in September 2025 after gaining 204% for the year.
Risk assessment for fintech investments
Interest rate sensitivity remains the critical macro variable. Lower rates benefit BNPL (Affirm), lending (SoFi), and trading platforms (Robinhood) by reducing funding costs and increasing consumer borrowing.
Regulatory risks have shifted dramatically. SEC crypto enforcement retreated through the dismissal of lawsuits, while the GENIUS Act provides clarity on the stablecoin framework. However, the CFPB's Open Banking rule imposes implementation costs beginning in April 2026.
Credit risk in BNPL/lending requires monitoring. While official BNPL delinquency rates remain below 2% (versus 8.8% for credit cards), late payment rates reached 42% of BNPL users in 2025 (up from 34% in 2023). 61% of BNPL loans are extended to subprime borrowers, creating vulnerability during economic downturns.
Crypto volatility directly impacts Coinbase and Block. Bitcoin fell 7% in 2025 after gaining 123% in 2024. Coinbase shares track Bitcoin closely. Block's 8,584 BTC treasury holding creates balance sheet volatility.
Competition from traditional banks intensifies as JPMorgan, Chase, and other incumbents integrate fintech capabilities. More than 150 fintech acquisitions by banks since 2014 signal that the divide between fintech and traditional banking is collapsing.
Sector outlook and valuation comparison
February Value 6 fintech valuations span from deep value growth premiums, requiring careful selection based on risk tolerance.
| Company | Stock Price | Forward P/E | P/S Ratio | Analyst Target | Implied Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal | $40-42 | 8.5x | 1.2x | $70-77 | +75% |
| Block | $56.79 | 11.4x | 1.4x | $79-84 | +45% |
| Coinbase | $169-189 | ~20x | 6.7x | $322-380 | +85% |
| Affirm | $76-83 | ~35x | 6.8x | $87-95 | +18% |
| SoFi | $20-22 | 44-56x | 6.9x | $26-27 | +25% |
PayPal presents the clearest value opportunity, trading at just 7x forward free cash flow with $6 billion annual buyback capacity. The CEO transition risk is priced in.
Coinbase offers the highest beta play on crypto market recovery, with regulatory clarity now secured and Base blockchain providing durable growth.
Block's Bitcoin conviction may finally reward patient investors as institutional adoption accelerates.
How Indian investors can access fintech stocks
Indian residents can invest in US fintech stocks through four primary routes:
Platform options:
- INDmoney/Vested: Best for beginners and amounts under $50,000
- Interactive Brokers: Best for experienced investors and larger portfolios
- ICICI Direct Global: Best for traditional investors wanting a familiar interface
- NSE IFSC (GIFT City): Limited stock selection but no LRS required
LRS and TCS framework (Updated April 2025):
- Annual limit: $250,000 per individual per financial year
- TCS rates: 0% on first ₹10 lakh remittance; 20% on amounts exceeding ₹10 lakh (refundable when filing ITR)
For detailed platform analysis, read our comprehensive guide on comparing US stock trading platforms available to Indian investors.
Tax implications for Indian investors:
| Holding Period | Tax Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤24 months | Slab rate (STCG) | Added to regular income |
| >24 months | 12.5% (LTCG) | No indexation benefit |
| Dividends | 25% US withholding | Claim FTC via Form 67 |
Currency advantage: INR has historically depreciated against USD, providing a natural currency tailwind. A 10% USD return combined with 3% INR depreciation yields approximately 13.3% INR return.
Learn more about why savvy Indian investors are adding US stocks for portfolio diversification to build resilient international portfolios.
Recommended allocation approach:
- Core holdings (60%): PayPal, Block—established platforms at attractive valuations
- Growth allocation (30%): Coinbase, Affirm—higher risk/reward with regulatory catalysts
- Tactical positions (10%): Sezzle, Toast—smaller caps with specific growth themes
The combination of India's UPI leadership, which demonstrates the transformative potential of digital payments, and US fintech innovation, which is creating the infrastructure, makes NASDAQ fintech stocks a compelling complement to domestic portfolios in 2026.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Table of Contents
The fintech sector enters February 2026 at a critical inflexion point. PayPal's CEO departure and earnings miss triggered a 20% stock crash. Meanwhile, Coinbase celebrates the complete dismissal of the SEC lawsuit that had hung over crypto markets for years. For Indian investors, NASDAQ fintech stocks now trade at the most attractive valuations in three years. PayPal trades at just 7x forward free cash flow, while Coinbase accounts for 46.6% of Layer 2 DeFi through its Base blockchain. The combination of regulatory clarity in the US and India's favorable 12.5% LTCG tax rate creates a compelling window to build positions in digital payments infrastructure.
PayPal analysis: Turmoil creates opportunity
PayPal reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, missing Wall Street expectations. The board announced the departure of CEO Alex Chriss, effective March 1, 2026. Revenue of $8.68 billion (+4% YoY) fell short of the expected $8.80 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.29 consensus. The stock immediately declined to $40-$42, down from $52 pre-earnings.
The core problem lies in branded checkout deceleration. Online branded checkout volume grew just 1% in Q4, collapsing from 5% in Q3 and 7% a year ago. Management withdrew 2027 guidance entirely, providing outlook only one year at a time.
Yet the investment case remains compelling. Total Payment Volume reached $475.1 billion for Q4 and approximately $1.79 trillion for full-year 2025, growing 9% YoY. Venmo revenue hit $1.7 billion (+20%), with debit card TPV surging 50%. The PYUSD stablecoin reached a $3.9 billion market cap, ranking as the sixth-largest stablecoin globally.
PayPal key metrics (February 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock Price | $40-42 |
| Market Cap | ~$40 billion |
| Revenue | $8.68B (+4% YoY) |
| TPV | $475.1B (+9% YoY) |
| Active Accounts | 439 million |
| Forward P/E | 8.5x |
| Analyst Consensus | Hold (target $70-77) |
At 8.5x forward P/E and 11-15% free cash flow yield, the stock may be pricing in excessive pessimism.
Block (Square) overview: Bitcoin conviction meets payments growth
Block trades at $56.79 with a $34.5 billion market cap, awaiting Q4 2025 results scheduled for February 26, 2026. The company changed its ticker from SQ to XYZ in January 2025 and joined the S&P 500 in July 2025.
Cash App remains the growth engine, generating $1.62 billion gross profit in Q3 2025 (+24% YoY) from its 57 million monthly active users. Gross profit per active reached $94 annuallyised (+25 %), though this trails Chime's $245 ARPU, suggesting a significant monetisation opportunity. Cash App Card users grew to 25 million with 27% YoY expansion.
Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin vision now permeates every product line. Block holds 8,584 BTC (cost basis ~$261 million, market value ~$783 million). The company purchases 10% of the monthly Bitcoin gross profit for the treasury. In August 2025, Block launched the Proto Mining System—modular Bitcoin mining hardware designed to challenge Bitmain's 80% market monopoly.
Afterpay's BNPL segment delivered $9.70 billion GMV in Q3 (+17% YoY), with 96% of payments made on time and 95%+ of GMV from returning customers. Square's seller ecosystem processed $67.2 billion GPV in Q3 (+12% YoY), with international GPV growing 26%.
Analyst consensus remains Buy with an average price target of $79-84, implying 45%+ upside from current levels.
Coinbase considerations: Regulatory victory transforms outlook
The SEC's dismissal of its enforcement case against Coinbase in February 2025 fundamentally altered the crypto exchange's investment profile. The lawsuit, filed in June 2023, alleging unregistered securities offerings, had cast a shadow over Coinbase's entire business model. With regulatory clarity restored, Coinbase now operates with unprecedented legitimacy.
The stock trades at $169-$189 (down 19.7% YTD as Bitcoin fell below $80,000), with a market capitalisation of $50.7 billion. Q3 2025 showed $1.9 billion revenue (+58% YoY), $433 million net income, and $1.44 EPS, beating estimates by 30%. Subscription and services revenue reached $747 million.
Base blockchain represents Coinbase's most underappreciated asset. The Layer 2 solution captures 46.6% of all L2 DeFi TVL and handles aValueimately 50% of L2 DEX volume. Total value locked grew from $3.1 billion in January 2025 to over $5.6 billion by October.
Coinbase Prime manages 12% of the total crypto market cap (~$400 billion in assets) and serves as the primary custodian for 8 of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. This institutional infrastructure provides a stable revenue stream regardless of retail trading volatility.
Analyst consensus is Buy with average targets of $322-380, implying 70-100% upside from current levels.
Digital payment trends reshaping global finance
Global digital payments reached $24.07 trillion in transaction value in 2025 and are projected to reach $36.09 trillion by 2030 with an 8.44% CAGR. Real-time payments emerged as the transformative force.
Mobile wallet dominance accelerates:
- Apple Pay: 659-785 million global users, $8.7 trillion processed, 54% US in-store mobile wallet share
- Google Pay: 200-820 million global users, $5.2 trillion processed, 54% India market share
- PayPal: 47.4% online payments market share, Venmo at 22.4% US digital payment share
India's UPI processed 228.3 billion transactions valued at ₹299.7 lakh crore (~$3.5 trillion) in 2025, growing 32.5% YoY. UPI now accounts for 84% of India's digital payments and processes more daily transactions than Visa globally.
AI in fraud detection reached 91% adoption among US banks, with 47% of businesses using AI specifically for fraud prevention. The technology achieves 90% accuracy in fraud identification while reducing false positives by 80% versus legacy systems.
ToTokenisationomentum builds toward universal adoption. 85% of online merchants now use tokenisation, while Visa and Mastercard aim to achieve 100% totokenisationy 2030.
Buy now, pay later companies: Affirm leads, Klarna struggles
Affirm Holdings achieved sustained GAAP profitability. Q1 FY2026 (September quarter) delivered $933.3 million revenue (+34% YoY), $10.8 billion GMV (+42%), and $0.23 EPS versus $0.11 expected. Active consumers reached 23 million (+24%).
The Amazon partnership—representing 23% of Affirm's GMV—was extended through January 2031 with auto-renewal provisions. Affirm Card users reached 2.8 million, with GMV growing 132%. At $76-83 per share with a $24-25 billion market cap, the analyst consensus is Moderate Buy with average targets of $87-95.
Klarna's September 2025 IPO—the largest US IPO of the year at $15 billion valuation—has disappointed investors. The stock opened at $52 but now trades at $21-$25, down by more than 50% from its highs. Multiple class action lawsuits allege misleading statements regarding loss reserve risks.
Sezzle emerged as the surprise winner, joining the S&P SmallCap 600 in December 2025 after explosive growth. Q3 2025 revenue hit $116.8 million (+67% YoY) with $26.7 million net income. At $63-70 per share with 85% gross margin and 27-28% net margin, Sezzle trades at just 19-20x P/E.
Other notable fintech stocks:
| Company | Stock Price | Market Cap | Key Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoFi | $20-22 | $27.7B | First $1B revenue quarter |
| Robinhood | $86-108 | $78-98B | +204% gain in 2025 |
| Adyen | €1,375 | €39.9B | 50% EBITDA margin |
| Toast | $28-34 | $17B | 156,000 restaurant locations |
SoFi reported record Q4 2025 results with $1.01 billion in revenue (+40% YoY) and $174 million in net income. Members reached 13.7 million (+35%). Robinhood joined the S&P 500 in September 2025 after gaining 204% for the year.
Risk assessment for fintech investments
Interest rate sensitivity remains the critical macro variable. Lower rates benefit BNPL (Affirm), lending (SoFi), and trading platforms (Robinhood) by reducing funding costs and increasing consumer borrowing.
Regulatory risks have shifted dramatically. SEC crypto enforcement retreated through the dismissal of lawsuits, while the GENIUS Act provides clarity on the stablecoin framework. However, the CFPB's Open Banking rule imposes implementation costs beginning in April 2026.
Credit risk in BNPL/lending requires monitoring. While official BNPL delinquency rates remain below 2% (versus 8.8% for credit cards), late payment rates reached 42% of BNPL users in 2025 (up from 34% in 2023). 61% of BNPL loans are extended to subprime borrowers, creating vulnerability during economic downturns.
Crypto volatility directly impacts Coinbase and Block. Bitcoin fell 7% in 2025 after gaining 123% in 2024. Coinbase shares track Bitcoin closely. Block's 8,584 BTC treasury holding creates balance sheet volatility.
Competition from traditional banks intensifies as JPMorgan, Chase, and other incumbents integrate fintech capabilities. More than 150 fintech acquisitions by banks since 2014 signal that the divide between fintech and traditional banking is collapsing.
Sector outlook and valuation comparison
February Value 6 fintech valuations span from deep value growth premiums, requiring careful selection based on risk tolerance.
| Company | Stock Price | Forward P/E | P/S Ratio | Analyst Target | Implied Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal | $40-42 | 8.5x | 1.2x | $70-77 | +75% |
| Block | $56.79 | 11.4x | 1.4x | $79-84 | +45% |
| Coinbase | $169-189 | ~20x | 6.7x | $322-380 | +85% |
| Affirm | $76-83 | ~35x | 6.8x | $87-95 | +18% |
| SoFi | $20-22 | 44-56x | 6.9x | $26-27 | +25% |
PayPal presents the clearest value opportunity, trading at just 7x forward free cash flow with $6 billion annual buyback capacity. The CEO transition risk is priced in.
Coinbase offers the highest beta play on crypto market recovery, with regulatory clarity now secured and Base blockchain providing durable growth.
Block's Bitcoin conviction may finally reward patient investors as institutional adoption accelerates.
How Indian investors can access fintech stocks
Indian residents can invest in US fintech stocks through four primary routes:
Platform options:
- INDmoney/Vested: Best for beginners and amounts under $50,000
- Interactive Brokers: Best for experienced investors and larger portfolios
- ICICI Direct Global: Best for traditional investors wanting a familiar interface
- NSE IFSC (GIFT City): Limited stock selection but no LRS required
LRS and TCS framework (Updated April 2025):
- Annual limit: $250,000 per individual per financial year
- TCS rates: 0% on first ₹10 lakh remittance; 20% on amounts exceeding ₹10 lakh (refundable when filing ITR)
For detailed platform analysis, read our comprehensive guide on comparing US stock trading platforms available to Indian investors.
Tax implications for Indian investors:
| Holding Period | Tax Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤24 months | Slab rate (STCG) | Added to regular income |
| >24 months | 12.5% (LTCG) | No indexation benefit |
| Dividends | 25% US withholding | Claim FTC via Form 67 |
Currency advantage: INR has historically depreciated against USD, providing a natural currency tailwind. A 10% USD return combined with 3% INR depreciation yields approximately 13.3% INR return.
Learn more about why savvy Indian investors are adding US stocks for portfolio diversification to build resilient international portfolios.
Recommended allocation approach:
- Core holdings (60%): PayPal, Block—established platforms at attractive valuations
- Growth allocation (30%): Coinbase, Affirm—higher risk/reward with regulatory catalysts
- Tactical positions (10%): Sezzle, Toast—smaller caps with specific growth themes
The combination of India's UPI leadership, which demonstrates the transformative potential of digital payments, and US fintech innovation, which is creating the infrastructure, makes NASDAQ fintech stocks a compelling complement to domestic portfolios in 2026.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs
