Wall Street wakes from calm: September kicks off with market shake-up
The first whispers of September always bring a shift in Wall Street’s mood. The last days of August offered little warning: stocks closed relatively flat, optimism hung in the air, and no one expected a storm. But tradition counts for something in the world of equities. September, known for its “scariness,” wasted no time. The tape started ticking and, as Tuesday dawned, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all headed south, pulled down by bond angst, tariff confusion, and a flight to gold.
Market volatility returns
The tumble wasn’t dramatic but it felt like a page turning. The Dow gave up over half a percent, the S&P 500 shed close to 0.7%, and the Nasdaq, weighted by big tech, fell a full 0.8%. Traders woke up to rising long-term Treasury yields, a point of warning explained by Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets: “Bond yields at the long end have been going higher through the past month. Why is it now that the pain is starting to trickle through to equities?”.
But it didn’t stop with yields. Gold punched through to all-time highs above $3,500/oz, the ultimate sign that investors crave safety when the wind shifts. Meanwhile, a recent federal court ruling sent shocks through the policy landscape by declaring most of President Trump’s global tariffs illegal, casting fresh uncertainty over trade and multinational earnings.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, captured the sense of anticipation: “Stocks are entering September with a time out from the recent calm,” he noted. “Market volatility should increase, especially equities and both short- and long-term fixed income.” Wren expects more turbulence and welcomes it: “We are likely due for a pullback, and should it occur, we will be inclined to invest more in equities... We are actually hoping for an opportunity to acquire stocks at lower prices.”
Experts brace for fallout
As investors digest this mix of strong earnings, policy shocks, and shifting macro trends, many look to history for guidance. Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial reminds traders to take the long view: “Seasonal data represents the climate for stocks but not the weather... September doesn't look so bad when you account for momentum and trend, which are much-needed context.”
Momentum ran hot at the end of August, with up to 90% of NYSE stocks trading in the green, an extremely rare occurrence, as seen only twelve times since 1980. But experts keep their eyes on the macro signals. Wells Fargo thinks a market correction of 5-10% would be “pretty reasonable after the run we've had” and predicts the Federal Reserve could enact a major rate cut, perhaps as much as 100 basis points by year’s end, starting with 50 points this month. “We believe that such significant cuts to the fed funds rate will enhance economic performance as we progress through the next year. Therefore, we view market corrections as favourable buying opportunities,” said Wren.
Omar Sayed of Porchester Capital went broader: “Volatility typically increases as we enter autumn. The positioning in systematic strategies is already stretched, meaning the market has less capacity to absorb shocks than usual. Any crisis in one market can instigate a crisis in another.” For retail holders, this is a warning to monitor exposure, as U.S. equity ownership continues at record highs relative to disposable income.
So, the tape rolls on. September’s caution weighs on big names like Nvidia and Alphabet, who swung up and down on antitrust and chip supply news. But at the heart of it, traders know this is a seasonal dance, one where opportunity waits just below the volatility, and every headline could be the start of the next rally or retreat.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Table of Contents
The first whispers of September always bring a shift in Wall Street’s mood. The last days of August offered little warning: stocks closed relatively flat, optimism hung in the air, and no one expected a storm. But tradition counts for something in the world of equities. September, known for its “scariness,” wasted no time. The tape started ticking and, as Tuesday dawned, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all headed south, pulled down by bond angst, tariff confusion, and a flight to gold.
Market volatility returns
The tumble wasn’t dramatic but it felt like a page turning. The Dow gave up over half a percent, the S&P 500 shed close to 0.7%, and the Nasdaq, weighted by big tech, fell a full 0.8%. Traders woke up to rising long-term Treasury yields, a point of warning explained by Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets: “Bond yields at the long end have been going higher through the past month. Why is it now that the pain is starting to trickle through to equities?”.
But it didn’t stop with yields. Gold punched through to all-time highs above $3,500/oz, the ultimate sign that investors crave safety when the wind shifts. Meanwhile, a recent federal court ruling sent shocks through the policy landscape by declaring most of President Trump’s global tariffs illegal, casting fresh uncertainty over trade and multinational earnings.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, captured the sense of anticipation: “Stocks are entering September with a time out from the recent calm,” he noted. “Market volatility should increase, especially equities and both short- and long-term fixed income.” Wren expects more turbulence and welcomes it: “We are likely due for a pullback, and should it occur, we will be inclined to invest more in equities... We are actually hoping for an opportunity to acquire stocks at lower prices.”
Experts brace for fallout
As investors digest this mix of strong earnings, policy shocks, and shifting macro trends, many look to history for guidance. Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial reminds traders to take the long view: “Seasonal data represents the climate for stocks but not the weather... September doesn't look so bad when you account for momentum and trend, which are much-needed context.”
Momentum ran hot at the end of August, with up to 90% of NYSE stocks trading in the green, an extremely rare occurrence, as seen only twelve times since 1980. But experts keep their eyes on the macro signals. Wells Fargo thinks a market correction of 5-10% would be “pretty reasonable after the run we've had” and predicts the Federal Reserve could enact a major rate cut, perhaps as much as 100 basis points by year’s end, starting with 50 points this month. “We believe that such significant cuts to the fed funds rate will enhance economic performance as we progress through the next year. Therefore, we view market corrections as favourable buying opportunities,” said Wren.
Omar Sayed of Porchester Capital went broader: “Volatility typically increases as we enter autumn. The positioning in systematic strategies is already stretched, meaning the market has less capacity to absorb shocks than usual. Any crisis in one market can instigate a crisis in another.” For retail holders, this is a warning to monitor exposure, as U.S. equity ownership continues at record highs relative to disposable income.
So, the tape rolls on. September’s caution weighs on big names like Nvidia and Alphabet, who swung up and down on antitrust and chip supply news. But at the heart of it, traders know this is a seasonal dance, one where opportunity waits just below the volatility, and every headline could be the start of the next rally or retreat.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs