Wall Street waits: Anticipation and momentum on Fed day
It’s mid-morning in New York, and traders on Wall Street are transfixed by the streaming ticker, each digit a sign of both breathe-easy optimism and the knot of apprehension that always clenches ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement. The S&P 500 has just logged its highest ever close above 6,600. Yet, across trading floors and homes, the mood isn’t simple celebration, it’s an electric hush, with every eye focused on what Jerome Powell and his colleagues will unveil in the hours ahead.
The calm before the Fed speaks
Today’s session started with gains, but the climb was gentle and measured, everyone pacing their bets. Why? The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. It’s not a surprise, everyone from analysts to market makers has marked this move as near-certain, with futures pointing to a 96 percent chance of a reduction.
“Bull markets often have their share of distractions, and historically, these do not warrant abandoning investments,” said Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, speaking on CNBC’s Halftime Report. “The S&P 500 should appreciate as monetary policy becomes more supportive,” he added, referencing that most experts expect equities to benefit from easier Fed policy.
But the deeper suspense comes not from today’s cut, but from the playbook for the year’s remaining months. Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, summed up the trading desk mood: “There is apprehension that the Fed’s decision could prompt a swift 'sell the news' response… the most ‘painful’ outcome would be a dovish surprise that triggers a strong shift from tech/momentum stocks to pro-value/cyclical assets.”
It’s not just Wall Street traders who are glued to the news. Political tensions have spiked, with President Trump repeating criticisms of Powell’s stewardship. Pundits and professionals alike see these pressures as a rare threat to the Fed’s independence. The result? More caution, more hedging, more whispers along the corridor about how quickly the Fed might return to cuts later this year.
AI drives records, but risks linger
The S&P’s historic close, prompted by surging technology shares, especially AI chipmakers, has sparked excitement but also nerves. In a weekly note, BlackRock wrote, “U.S. stocks surged to new all-time highs on the AI theme. Tech stocks outperformed on the AI theme, with shares of Oracle surging on major cloud demand from AI customers… we think this can persist.” Yet, there’s a caveat: “We need to be ready for a few very different macro scenarios in coming months. Our base case: A soft labour market allows the Fed to cut rates, a positive for equities. This could spark broader equity gains and support long-term bonds.”
Paul Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, warned investors in a July forecast, “The next few months for the equity market will look very different from the last.” He expects S&P 500 firms to lean on cost savings and pricing strategies to offset the impact of new tariffs, adapting to policy uncertainty and volatile inflation.
Seagate Technology led the S&P index yesterday with a sharp 7% gain, while Albemarle climbed over 6%, bolstered by robust demand in communication services and a strategic tilt towards AI innovation.
Trading desks are split: some see today’s Fed cut spurring another leg higher for stocks, others warn that if guidance isn’t dovish enough, a “sell-the-news” reversal could hit. For now, Wall Street remains in its collective hush—a tension between surging optimism and the very real risks ahead.
As the Fed prepares to speak, the US stock market stands at an inflection point: momentum is strong, but sentiment could turn on a sentence. Investors watch, wait and weigh every word, ready to pivot from celebration to caution at a moment’s notice.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Table of Contents
It’s mid-morning in New York, and traders on Wall Street are transfixed by the streaming ticker, each digit a sign of both breathe-easy optimism and the knot of apprehension that always clenches ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement. The S&P 500 has just logged its highest ever close above 6,600. Yet, across trading floors and homes, the mood isn’t simple celebration, it’s an electric hush, with every eye focused on what Jerome Powell and his colleagues will unveil in the hours ahead.
The calm before the Fed speaks
Today’s session started with gains, but the climb was gentle and measured, everyone pacing their bets. Why? The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. It’s not a surprise, everyone from analysts to market makers has marked this move as near-certain, with futures pointing to a 96 percent chance of a reduction.
“Bull markets often have their share of distractions, and historically, these do not warrant abandoning investments,” said Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, speaking on CNBC’s Halftime Report. “The S&P 500 should appreciate as monetary policy becomes more supportive,” he added, referencing that most experts expect equities to benefit from easier Fed policy.
But the deeper suspense comes not from today’s cut, but from the playbook for the year’s remaining months. Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, summed up the trading desk mood: “There is apprehension that the Fed’s decision could prompt a swift 'sell the news' response… the most ‘painful’ outcome would be a dovish surprise that triggers a strong shift from tech/momentum stocks to pro-value/cyclical assets.”
It’s not just Wall Street traders who are glued to the news. Political tensions have spiked, with President Trump repeating criticisms of Powell’s stewardship. Pundits and professionals alike see these pressures as a rare threat to the Fed’s independence. The result? More caution, more hedging, more whispers along the corridor about how quickly the Fed might return to cuts later this year.
AI drives records, but risks linger
The S&P’s historic close, prompted by surging technology shares, especially AI chipmakers, has sparked excitement but also nerves. In a weekly note, BlackRock wrote, “U.S. stocks surged to new all-time highs on the AI theme. Tech stocks outperformed on the AI theme, with shares of Oracle surging on major cloud demand from AI customers… we think this can persist.” Yet, there’s a caveat: “We need to be ready for a few very different macro scenarios in coming months. Our base case: A soft labour market allows the Fed to cut rates, a positive for equities. This could spark broader equity gains and support long-term bonds.”
Paul Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, warned investors in a July forecast, “The next few months for the equity market will look very different from the last.” He expects S&P 500 firms to lean on cost savings and pricing strategies to offset the impact of new tariffs, adapting to policy uncertainty and volatile inflation.
Seagate Technology led the S&P index yesterday with a sharp 7% gain, while Albemarle climbed over 6%, bolstered by robust demand in communication services and a strategic tilt towards AI innovation.
Trading desks are split: some see today’s Fed cut spurring another leg higher for stocks, others warn that if guidance isn’t dovish enough, a “sell-the-news” reversal could hit. For now, Wall Street remains in its collective hush—a tension between surging optimism and the very real risks ahead.
As the Fed prepares to speak, the US stock market stands at an inflection point: momentum is strong, but sentiment could turn on a sentence. Investors watch, wait and weigh every word, ready to pivot from celebration to caution at a moment’s notice.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Ready to earn on every trade?
Invest in 11,000+ US stocks & ETFs