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Trump’s $100,000 H-1B move: How a single order is shaking up US markets

Denila Lobo
September 22, 2025
2 minutes read
Trump’s $100,000 H-1B move: How a single order is shaking up US markets

The stillness before Wall Street’s opening bell has rarely felt so charged. Over the weekend, news broke that US President Donald Trump had signed off a seismic policy: a one-time H-1B visa fee hike to an eye-watering $100,000. Even as traders sip their coffee and scan phone screens, the aftershocks of this single decision ripple worldwide. At stake is not just money, but the very DNA of America’s tech industry and its place in the future economy.

And at the heart of it, people. Not all drama comes in the clatter of tickers or frenzied trades. Sometimes, the biggest stories begin with a quiet piece of paper signed behind closed doors.

Policy tremors before the open

For years, the H-1B visa has been the bridge connecting global tech mastery to Silicon Valley’s ambitions. Trump’s move, intended to “push companies to hire American workers”, is poised to cost US employers a staggering $14 billion a year if application volumes hold steady. Garry Tan, CEO of start-up accelerator Y Combinator, summed up the startup world’s reaction: “This kneecaps start-ups and is a massive gift to every overseas tech hub like Vancouver and Toronto. In the middle of an AI arms race, we’re telling builders to build elsewhere,” he posted on X.

US-based IT giants, many reliant on skilled foreign talent, are left calculating costs. Infosys and Cognizant, for example, saw their shares tumble 4–5% globally after the news broke. Sunny Agrawal, head of research at SBI Securities, expects “a knee-jerk reaction when trading resumes, with IT shares likely opening down 1–3%”.

But there’s more at stake than markets. Immigration lawyers warned H-1B workers abroad to return to the States within a day, fearing the new barrier would leave them stranded, a new twist for thousands and their families.

Bar chart comparing previous and new H-1B visa fee costs for US companies

Tech sector rewrites its playbook

Commentators agree: the impact on the US tech sector will be instant and profound. Investors are bracing for short-term price falls, but the real story may unfold over years. Pareek Jain, founder of EIIRTrend, observed, “This will cause short-term disruption and margin pressure for Indian IT. Big firms have been reducing US visa dependency, but costs must now be passed on, or jobs moved elsewhere”.

Ambareesh Baliga, a seasoned independent analyst, spotted a faint silver lining. With US authorities clarifying that only new visa applications will attract the $100,000 fee, “companies now have time to rethink their workforce strategy and cushion the impact”. And Keval Bhagat of Motilal Oswal points out that H-1B holders now comprise just 3–5% of the workforce at major vendors, reflecting years of adaptation.

Yet, the strategic consequences remain. “It’s a self-goal for the US,” said one market watcher, “as companies may simply accelerate offshoring or scale up operations in Canada, India, or Mexico, where the best talent may now choose to build the future”.

Today’s headlines offer a rare, human-centred reminder: markets rise and fall on numbers, but the far bigger shifts come from tectonic changes in ideas, talent, and rules. By the time the bell rings, one policy decision will have set the stage for a new chapter in the global tech race.

Stacked bar chart showing forecasted tech role offshoring to India and Canada from 2025 to 2027.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of Winvesta. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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